Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.030330 0.034517 0.039106 0.044515 0.050724 0.057636 0.065927
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.023260 0.028811 0.035460 0.044037 0.054845 0.068061 0.085523
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.020079 0.026330 0.034281 0.045188 0.059843 0.078969 0.106010
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.017293 0.023735 0.032334 0.044730 0.062279 0.086435 0.122551
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.015818 0.022595 0.032029 0.046240 0.067312 0.097726 0.145536
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.013766 0.020345 0.029841 0.044694 0.067614 0.102088 0.158706
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.012300 0.018751 0.028373 0.043951 0.068892 0.107861 0.174513
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.010844 0.016997 0.026450 0.042240 0.068375 0.110645 0.185678
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.010329 0.016643 0.026634 0.043851 0.073318 0.122669 0.213626
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.009860 0.016306 0.026792 0.045402 0.078278 0.135194 0.243927
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.009434 0.015988 0.026935 0.046913 0.083288 0.148291 0.276829
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.008742 0.015147 0.026103 0.046612 0.084994 0.155601 0.299707
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.008082 0.014318 0.025241 0.046215 0.086568 0.163003 0.324086
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007487 0.013552 0.024421 0.045817 0.088107 0.170537 0.349809
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007174 0.013268 0.024448 0.047012 0.092848 0.184830 0.391408
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006674 0.012586 0.023663 0.046535 0.094169 0.192335 0.419400
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006468 0.012448 0.023898 0.048109 0.099865 0.209543 0.471226
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.005918 0.011585 0.022642 0.046496 0.098635 0.211786 0.489035
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.005510 0.010972 0.021827 0.045722 0.099122 0.217811 0.516512
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.005037 0.010188 0.020597 0.043938 0.097174 0.218128 0.530137
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004936 0.010164 0.020939 0.045618 0.103256 0.237606 0.594308
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.004832 0.010124 0.021240 0.047235 0.109366 0.257857 0.663427
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.004727 0.010074 0.021513 0.048811 0.115547 0.279009 0.738077